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Photovoltaic policy plus code, wind power, tram continued to improve.

Release time:

2018-07-04 11:01

Renewable energy: on the eve of parity, energy substitution is just around the corner.
The introduction of the national quota system provides a lower limit guarantee for the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic. Compared with developed countries, the low penetration rate of wind power and light in the total power generation in China means that wind power and photovoltaic have 76GW and more than 96GW of potential installed space respectively by 2020, and wind power and photovoltaic have about 2000GW of development space respectively between 2020 and 2040.The enhancement of power grid peak adjustment and transmission capacity also eliminates the bottleneck for wind and light development, and at present, whether globally or domestically, the cost of wind power photovoltaic power is close to the feed-in tariff of thermal power, the era of grid parity or early arrival.
Wind power: the growth rate of the deterministic industry is optimistic about the high-elasticity industry chain leader.
Technical side: development of medium and low speed wind turbines in wind power industry, large-scale wind turbines in high wind speed areas, product platform design, intelligent technology, impeller diameter expansion, high tower technology and mature application of big data not only reduce the cost of wind power, but also expand the potential market from the three northern regions to the national and offshore wind power markets. Demand side: the profitability of wind power projects is much higher than that of other new energy investments, which is the main reason for the increase of operators, the acceleration of the diversification of investment entities also promotes the acceleration of the installation progress of the industry. At the same time, the backlog of stock projects in non-power-restricted areas, the lifting of the ban in the "Red Six Provinces" and the rise of decentralized wind power and offshore wind power all provide guarantee for the installed capacity of wind power in the next few years. In May 2018, the State Energy Administration implemented competitive allocation management of projects newly included in the annual development plan, which also promoted accelerated the construction of wind power stock, there was no significant capacity expansion in 2018. The wind power industry will have a process of increasing the scale effect of the industrial chain driven by demand, and the price of the local supply chain will rise and finally the whole industry will expand production income.
Photovoltaic: policy plus code manufacturing end pressure, optimistic about the downstream operation leader.
The impact of 530 policy continues, as total demand is artificially controlled, the manufacturing side will continue to be oversupplied, and prices and margins will be under short-term pressure. Downstream operations and EPC will benefit from lower costs. In addition, considering that the seventh batch of renewable energy subsidies has been issued, the cash flow of subsequent operators will also improve. At the same time, the continuous improvement of power rationing this year has also brought continuous improvement to the profitability of operators.
New energy vehicles: long-term grasp the industry leader, positioning new high-end demand.
Power battery industry chain: the whole industry chain has collective overcapacity, which will be cleared up at an accelerated pace in 2018. leading battery manufacturers will accelerate the binding to the downstream, taking market share as the main assessment KPI in 2018. at the same time, they are optimistic about high-nickel ternary leading enterprises, including but not limited to high-nickel positive electrode and high-nickel electrolyte industry quality targets, or there are development opportunities beyond the industry growth rate (analogy 17 years of fooneng technology); Drive assembly industry chain: at present, the main engine factory has begun to carry out motor, electronic control research and development, and planning the future gradually self-supply, and in the drive assembly integration trend, third-party independent motor electronic control enterprises or by virtue of differentiated drive assembly products and cost advantages still have a greater opportunity.

Core assumptions or logic
Wind power: The future industry installation shows a steady growth trend, subsidies and related policies as expected.
Photovoltaics: The downstream yield increase brought about by the decline in industrial chain prices will gradually ease the policy later.
New energy vehicles: In the next few years, domestic and global new energy vehicle production will continue to maintain rapid growth momentum. The capacity expansion process of battery enterprises is progressing as planned, and the development of passenger cars shows a gradual high-end trend.
Differences from market expectations
The wind power industry will have a demand-driven industrial chain scale effect highlighted, local market segments price increases and finally the whole industry to expand production income process, from the bottom up to focus on the industry chain leader.
The photovoltaic industry is affected by the 530 policy, the total demand is artificially controlled resulting in the manufacturing side of the price reduction pressure, while the operating side due to cost reduction and triple elasticity improvement to obtain benefits.
The new subsidy policy is to actively promote the development of China's new energy vehicle market to high-end and large-scale. Under the time node of the gradual transformation of the development momentum of the current auto market, paying attention to the opportunities brought by the development of passenger cars in the direction of high-end will achieve a higher growth rate than the industry in the new round of industrial chain reshuffle.

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